Crossing the security barrier that protects La Zagaleta from the rest of the world is the closest thing to entering a parallel reality. A trip to a planet where everything is easier and life is synonymous with luxury.

In this mountainous 900-hectare plot where deer roam, the weather moves slowly, unhurriedly, accompanied by a climate that is around 20 degrees even in December. Located in Benahavís(Málaga, 8,085 inhabitants), has a helipad, two golf courses and houses with garages for a dozen cars.

The gym, indoor pool and home automation are taken for granted in each home, as is the 24-hour service staff. Also the views of three countries: Spain at your feet, Gibraltar silhouetted on the horizon and the mountains of Morocco merging with the Mediterranean. A regular retreat for wealthy retirees, young people have now set their sights on this complex as well.

The millennial generation is now the main interested in acquiring one of their houses hidden in nature with Marbella ten minutes away. Only in 2020 there have been a fortnight of sales and interest “has skyrocketed,” says Jacobo Cestino, general manager of La Zagaleta.

Considered the most exclusive urbanization in Europe, this green corner is on its way to completing three decades of life.

The estate, originally owned by billionaire and arms dealer Adnan Khashoggi , allowed for the construction of 4,000 homes, but one of its founders, Enrique Pérez, decided that there would be a maximum of 400 homes.

In its enormous surface there are 258 scattered for now with a value that ranges between 2.5 and 32 million euros – only a third of the owners, of a score of nationalities, habitually reside – in addition to two others that are in full swing. building.

His impenetrable aura has made him the permanent object of hoaxes, such as those who say that Julio Iglesias, David Beckham or Vladimir Putin have a house there. The reality, according to those responsible, is that only Cristiano Ronaldo spent a night with his partner, Georgina Rodríguez, and one of his children in 2018 as part of a public relations operation.

Tenants hardly have a public profile: the place has traditionally been the object of desireof rich people looking for a retreat where the biggest problem is playing golf, going down to the clubhouse or taking a horse ride. “This is a paradise”, says the director of the equestrian club, Manuel de la Flor.

Now there is a young audience that is around 35 or 40 years old that has begun to notice the resort . They have a “Silicon Valley profile” , that is, many come from the technology sector, mobility for them is not a problem, as is not working from home or living permanently connected.

La Zagaleta has adapted to them and since last year it has been projecting houses that are somewhat smaller than those built in the beginning. The concept of small here is relative: the average is 800 square meters with a pool, gym and large open spaces.

“Now we build based on those needs of new buyers,” says Cestino, who explains that the price range is between four and eight million euros, like the two villas currently under construction and the three that will be built in 2021.

A pioneer of this new audience is David Hannemeir , a Danish programmer, writer and racing driver who arrived in La Zagaleta in 2012 in his early 30s. “It is the definitive urbanization for those who are not tied to a workplace,” he says.

“This used to refer to retirees, but in this remote world, that is completely changing,” he explains, while highlighting how the world has understood with the pandemic that meeting in person is optional.

“It is no longer necessary for someone to sit in an office in Berlin, they can work from home in La Zagaleta”, adds Jimmy Widén, founder of the real estate agency 3SA Estate, who has carried out several operations in this complex and highlights that the profile of The area’s new rich come from the technology and video game industry.

The managers of the urbanization have also begun to modify their marketing strategies to reach this new audience through social networks.

“They focus on aspects more related to comfort or ecology”, underlines the general director of La Zagaleta, where they have already designed a new children’s space surrounded by nature and develop projects to include the practice of water sports or natural activities as a complement to the two 18-hole golf courses, the tennis courts or the equestrian club that includes the urbanization. There is also a protocol for using social media without disturbing the neighborhood.

Buying in this complex requires overcoming some formalities. The development team requests bank certificates, investigates to ensure that the funds to pay for the houses come from legal activities or are interested in knowing the “honorability of the interested parties,” according to Sergio Azcona, its communication director.

It has not been a problem for the fifteen operations carried out in 2020, many preceded by a kind of trial period. The health crisis has led to rent for long stays – the average price is around 20,000 euros per month – and several of these tenants have taken the step of acquiring their own home, beginning a general change.

“This year we have doubled the number of people interested in buying here compared to previous years”, adds Cestino, who believes that confinement has opened the eyes of many people who can acquire large buildings with plenty of space around to enjoy the outdoors.

The low density, the services offered by the urbanization – an army of workers keeps everything in a state of review – or the security are some of its strengths. Committing a robbery is mission impossible: there are infrared cameras, extensive security equipment, movements are monitored and at the entrance you are greeted by an armed guard and aGoPro camera on the chest.

With the foundations of the future set in the millennial , the space does not forget the great classic fortunes and its roots of exclusivity with villas such as Ibiza Breeze , on a plot of 8,600 square meters and a value of 14.5 million.

Only the dressing room in the master bedroom is 40 square meters, and from there, everything is proportional in size. The ground floor, with 600 square meters, is an architectural postcard with huge windows that illuminate the rooms with the perennial light of the Costa del Sol.

The kitchen, designed by Zaha Hadid , has a living room and a huge dining room, as well as second complementary dependencies. Nine rooms, Turkish bath, sauna, heated pool with chill out area, two apartments for the service and more than 600 meters of terraces complete a house that Aedas Homes built and markets.

The infinity pool calls for the bathroom even though it’s the middle of December – 21 degrees is the ultimate push for a millennial … or anyone else with a lot of zeros on their account.

Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) is one of the leading private banks in Switzerland. Specialized in asset management for institutional and individual investors, as of June 30, it managed assets worth 134.4 billion Swiss francs (about 123.6 billion euros). Patrice Gautry has worked at this Geneva-based entity since 2000 and is currently its chief economist.

Will the long-awaited recovery come in 2021? We are optimistic because there will be different levels of support for that recovery to take place.. Our forecast is for the world economy to grow 5% this year and with the vaccination process underway it is likely that we will approach 6%.

Europe must be one of the most favored regions, especially peripheral countries such as Spain and Italy, since in 2020 it was one of the hardest hit by the pandemic. In addition, Europe will have the community fund for recovery and, in parallel, fiscal and monetary support will be maintained.

I believe that Western countries will lead the recovery process, although China can grow up to 9%. Some Asian manufacturing countries such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines or Ceylon should also benefit from the return to normalcy.

Do you think activity levels prior to the coronavirus crisis will recover soon? With the help of the vaccine, the answer is yes. In China we are already in that situation , in the United States I believe that in the fourth quarter of this year the level of activity that was at the end of 2019 will recover and, in the case of Europe, our forecast is that this will happen in the middle of 2022.

Without the help of the vaccine, returning to the pre-covid-19 situation would have taken between a year and two more years.

This recovery scenario that you draw, I imagine that it will be threatened by different risks. What factors could derail the improvement?

The first risk is the health one. After the big rebound in the third quarter of 2020, the second wave of the pandemic has taken its toll. Most economies, perhaps with the exception of the United States, will see their GDP fall in the last quarter of the year. In addition, we are entering what could be a third wave.

Therefore, the growth scenario will depend on the ability of the rulers to control the pandemic.and manage the vaccination process successfully. In addition, it must be verified that the treatment is indeed successful, the duration of the immunity and its effectiveness against new mutations of the virus. In the most optimistic scenario, we would have herd compensation by the end of 2021.

The other risk is linked to economic policies, especially if budget stimuli are withdrawn too soon. Any debate about a return to fiscal austerity should be postponed to 2023 or 2024, not before.

Along with fiscal measures, the other dam that has contributed to the recession not being even more serious is the response of the central banks. Some think that monetary stimuli have already reached their limit. Do you share it?

It is likely. If the recovery scenario is fulfilled, the central banks will not have to go further in the stimuli and it will be enough for them to maintain those already announced. However, if the situation becomes complicated, they will be forced to lower negative rates even further.

In the case of the ECB, in an environment of weakness, it would have to consider whether to include in the list of assets susceptible to purchase high yield debt and bank bonds, something to which it has so far refused.

On the other hand, if the vaccination is a success, we will see how in the United States the forecast begins to grow for the Federal Reserve to design an exit plan from the stimuli with a view to putting it in place by the end of 2022.

Cryptocurrency experts and analysts love to issue Bitcoin ( BTC ) price predictions regardless of how volatile the asset class is.

In 2017, there were predictions that the price of BTC would reach $ 35,000 – $ 50,000, and of course some brave souls predicted that the price would exceed $ 1 million before correcting itself.

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No one will forget how John McAfee infamously promised to bite his genitals if the price of BTC didn’t hit $ 1 million by 2020.

While some of these high estimates are based on fundamentals, others are completely unfounded. Regardless of the analyst’s reasoning, some of them are so far removed from reality that they have become memes.

Let’s review the most scandalous Bitcoin price predictions of 2020.

“Guess” attracts attention because no one follows them.Guessing the future price of cryptocurrencies is so embedded in the community that many analysts don’t even consider evaluating its effectiveness.
Keeping up with the endless stream of predictions posted on blogs, podcasts, Twitter, and YouTube is nearly impossible. Imagine the difficulty and energy it would take for a person to keep track of all these random assumptions.

To further complicate matters, some of these predictions came from known Bitcoin attackers, such as famous gold fanatic Peter Schiff and New York University Stern School of Business professor Nouriel Roubini. Therefore, in some cases, personal credentials sometimes matter less than analytical work models.

Bitcoin Beats Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway For Market Cap. A month before the collapse on March 12, in which the price of Bitcoin plunged 50% to $ 3,750, PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, declared that Bitcoin would not go below $ 8,200 again . At the time, no one expected the Dow Jones equity index to face its most significant drop since 1987, or the WTI oil futures contract to drop to negative $ 40.

Despite the outlandish claim, PlanB will not be nominated for the worst predictions of 2020 because hardly anyone expected the coronavirus pandemic to affect markets in a way that would cause utter chaos. Furthermore, the famous chartist Peter Brandt also made the same mistake when he said that BTC would never visit the below $ 6,000 level in January again.

CryptoWhale’s quantum model predicts $ 24,000 BTC by mid-2022. On June 2, 2020, Twitter analyst CryptoWhale revealed a new “quantum” model that would predict the price of Bitcoin. According to CryptoWhale, the model had “effectively predicted all major moves since 2018.”

Things couldn’t have gotten worse as the model predicted both a bottom of $ 2,000 in 2020 and a “proper bull run to $ 24,000” in mid-2022 alone . Somehow, quantum particles, molecules, and atoms that are he supposed they would make it more precise were, in fact, pure blasphemy.

Two lessons to be learned from the “quantum model” are: ( 1) Having a ton of followers on social media doesn’t necessarily translate into better price estimates, and (2) complex models are prone to the same errors as humans . Assessing a new asset class during a period of desperate central bank monetary easing is no easy task.

In April, Ross Ulbricht, founder of the now-defunct darknet market Silk Road, wrote that Bitcoin’s volatility, particularly the March 12 bloodbath, would likely lead to a bear market , which could last three to nine. months . At the time, Bitcoin had been hovering around $ 7,000 and was clearly still affected by the recent 50% intraday correction.

Precisely 17 days after that post , BTC soared more than 30% to $ 9,000, thus completely invalidating Ulbricht’s analysis. To further show just how far that analysis was, Ulbricht added that a bull run to $ 14,000 was “very unlikely.”

During the so-called Ulbricht bear market period, the price of Bitcoin rallied more than 300% from December 2018 to June 2019. Also, asking for such a long correction does not align with the historical Bitcoin data because even during the period Darkest December 2019, Bitcoin price remained more than 100% above the lows of the previous year.

During a July 27 interview with Forbes, Panxora CEO Gavin Smith said that he expected a Bitcoin price of $ 7,000 by the end of the year. Gavin further added that “there will be a short-term washout this year before the real rally takes place.”

The Panxora CEO explained that despite the upward trend caused by hedging against inflation, the broader impact of the demand hit on the economy could cause BTC to go down.

This estimate came after 80 days of the Bitcoin price consolidating around $ 9,500. At the time, despite having risen 100% from the mid-March lows, there were still some doubts about BTC’s ability to break through the $ 10,000 resistance.

Antoni Trenchev Predicts a Bitcoin Price of $ 50,000 in 2020.On January 3, 2020, Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev stated that BTC could easily reach $ 50,000 in 2020 .

Other than an overly optimistic estimate, the logic behind this doesn’t seem to fit. According to Trenchev, Bitcoin had become “the new gold”, pointing to the lack of correlation with traditional markets as a potential catalyst.

As shown above, gold traded in tandem with traditional markets for most of 2020, but it should be noted that these asset classes have different volatility. Therefore, swings in equities tend to be much stronger. However, the general direction of both markets until November has been very similar.

This price movement creates the impossible task in which BTC is expected to act as “the new gold” while exhibiting a lack of correlation. This estimate was doubly incorrect because it did not meet its year-end target by a wide margin and it did not correctly estimate gold’s correlation with traditional markets either.

Now that the price of Bitcoin is just 7.4% off $ 30,000, it will be even more interesting to see what kind of outlandish bullish and bearish price estimates are issued for 2021.